Popperian thesis on ‘conspiracies’ and the Deep State
Popper and perhaps others posited in the early to mid-20 th century that conspiracy theories were implausible simply on the face of it. [ 1 ] Any claim of a ‘conspiracy theory’ as deemed by ‘experts’ should require such a massive burden of proof that it should be absurd and likely beyond the ability of amateur researchers to prove. His specific statement was something along the lines of ‘any large group engaged in [nefarious] secret activity is unlikely to keep its secrets long.’ For now, we’ll let this stand. Suffice it to say, I think that there are enough case studies if you like or Bayesian priors which lead one to conclude that his thesis was wrongheaded. That is, if you attribute no ill motives to him or the others who helped create the term ‘conspiracy theory’ and then pathologize it. The first and obvious counter is that states do things in secret which they are tasked in the name of known objectives, the foremost being national security, national interest, protection of ...